Soybeans
It was an ugly day in the grain markets, particularly for soybeans which finished about 25 cents off the overnight high to settle just a few cents off Friday’s low. At the close March futures were 21 ½ cents lower to settle at 1205 ¾. Friday’s action looked half-way encouraging with the close off the lows, but the revisit to Friday’s breakdown point and eventual failure point over the last two sessions is not what the Bulls wanted to see. A probe below Friday’s low and the psychologically significant $12.00 looks almost inevitable at this point.
Corn
Corn futures made new lows today but managed “hold ground”, only giving up 1 ¼ cents today to settle at 442 ¼. There was nothing friendly in Friday’s report for the corn market, which may have been the purge of bad news we needed; meaning, what else is left to throw at the market? Although that may be true, Managed Funds don’t seem to see any reason to cover their largest net short position since 2020. Keep in mind that in the year prior to covid we saw fund selling pressure from the start of the year all the way through April, amassing a net short position of over 300,000 futures and options contracts.
Wheat
Wheat futures won a gold star today in terms of effort with the March contract squeaking out a half cent gain to settle at 582 ½. Yesterday’s trade did cause some technical damage, but it was nice to see the market hold it’s own today.
Cattle
Live cattle were mostly higher with the exception of February, which finished 2 cents lower to 173.10. The April contract officially overtook February today in terms of trade volume, that contract settled 45 cents higher to 175.625, the highest close since November 29th.
Feeder cattle futures also saw another positive day with the March contract settling 95 cents higher to 229.77.
Lean Hogs
On the snout side, it was green across the screen with the February contract leading the way, settling 67 cents higher to 71.45. Bloomberg did have an noteworthy article out overnight siting Chinese pork production reaching a 9 year high. “China’s pork production in 2023 expanded to the highest level in nine years, even as demand weakened after consumers tightened spending due to a broader economic slowdown. Output of the country’s most consumed meat climbed for a third straight year to 57.94 million tons, the most since record production in 2014, according to data from the National Statistics Bureau released on Wednesday. Hog prices tumbled last year amid lower demand and higher supplies.”.