It was a bit of a mixed day in the grain markets with soybeans and wheat gaining ground and corn finishing the day in the red. At the close march corn futures were 4 cents lower to settle at 438 ¾. The new crop December contract settled the day a half cent lower to 477 ¼. March soybeans gained 3 ¼ cents settling at 1199 ½. March Chicago wheat was 4 ¾ cent higher at the close, settling at 595.
Yesterday’s weekly export inspections for grains was a bit of a goldilocks Corn was reported at 624k metric tons, that was below the low end of estimates. Soybeans came in at 1.4 million metric tons, above the top end of expectations, and wheat, well that was just right, or within the range of expectations, coming in at 266k metric tons
The big ticket item this week will be Thursday’s WASDE report. Traders, analysts, and other participants will be looking for adjustments in South American production and US Ending stocks. The average analyst estimate for Brazilian soybean production comes in at 153.15 million tonnes, that compares to the 157 that the USDA reported in January’s report. The average analyst estimate for the Brazilian corn crop comes in at 124.32 million tonnes, that compares to the 127 that the USDA estimated in last month’s report.
It was a sharply higher day in the cattle complex, while lean hogs continued to retreat. At the close April live cattle futures were $3.72 higher to settle at 186.075, that was the highest closing price since November 3rd. March feeder cattle futures settled the day $3.92 higher to 246.67, the highest close since October 19th. The RSI (relative strength index) for live cattle and feeder cattle are both above 70, which many technicians refer to as overbought. On the snout side, it’s a been a different story. April lean hogs were lower to start the week and saw follow-through pressure in today’s trade, settling 95 cents lower to settle at 81.25
This morning’s wholesale boxed beef report was steady to firm with choice cuts up 40 cents to 293.48 and select cuts up 30 cents to 283.77. Yesterday’s daily livestock summary from the USDA reported the 5-area average price for live steers at 177.79, this is firm with what we have seen so far at the stat of the year. Dail slaughter was reported at 125k head, that’s inline with what we saw last week and about 7k head more than the same day last year.
The most recent commitment of trader’s report showed managed money adding roughly 10k contracts to their net long position, expanding it to 27k futures and options contracts. Historically, this would be viewed as a relatively neutral position.