Grain markets were higher in the Sunday night trade but have retreated in the Monday morning session as Funds continue to press the pedal to the medal.
Corn
Technicals (May)
There’s not much to say about the grain markets that hasn’t been said already. The lack of new news keeps the bearish narrative intact and Funds unthreatened with the record net short position. First notice day for March futures is February 29th, if you have March positions on you’ll want to consider exiting or rolling those as the volume will continue to thin out into delivery.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 422-425** 435-436 1/2***
Pivot: 415-416
Support: 398-402**
Fundamental Notes
- AgRural estimates the safrinha corn crop to be 73% planted, well ahead of last year’s pace at 56%.
Seasonal Tendencies
(updated on Mondays)
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for May corn futures (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). *Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results
Fund Positioning
(updated on Mondays)
Funds were net sellers yet again, growing their net short position to a record 340,732 futures and options contracts. Last week marked the eighth consecutive week of selling.
Soybeans
Technicals (May)
May soybeans continue started the Sunday night trade on higher ground but have reversed to trade lower into the early morning. Previous support will now act as resistance, that comes in from 1145-1157. This is a much wider pocket than we would typically like to use, but there are so many important levels there that it made more sense to bundle it into one pocket instead of several levels right on top of each other.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1175-1176, 1198-1205 1/2
Pivot: 1145-1157
Support: 1125-1130**
Fundamental Notes
- AgRural cut their Brazilian soybean crop estimate to 147.7 MMT, down 2.4 MMT.
- Brazil soybean harvest is estimated to be 40% complete.
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for May soybean futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers yet again, extending the streak to 14 consecutive weeks, a new record. They are now net short 136,677 futures and options contracts, the fifth largest net short on record.
Wheat
Technicals (May)
May wheat futures are showing signs of weakness as prices retreat and threaten the low end of the recent range. A break and close below support from 555-558 could accelerate the selling pressure. On the resistance side the Bulls want to see a close back above 573-578.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 595 3/4-600***, 608 1/2-611**
Pivot: 573-578
Support: 555-558****
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonal averages for May Chicago wheat futures VS this year’s price (black line), updated each Monday.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Funds were net sellers of Chicago wheat last week, but the net position remains within the range that we’ve seen since the middle of December. Currently that net short position stands at 68,524.
