USDA report estimates are starting to trickle out.  Markets are quietly mixed in the early morning trade.

Grain Express

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It was tough sledding for the grain markets yesterday but that pressure has subsided overnight with corn, soybeans, and wheat all trading mixed in the early morning trade.

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Corn

Technicals (December) December corn futures continued to retreat in yesterday’s trade, settling right in the middle of our pivot pocket from 399-403. Trendline resistance comes in at the upper end of that pivot pocket, above that is the 20-day moving average at 408. That acted as a brick wall in Tuesday’s trade where we posted a high of 409. A move out above here on a closing basis could spark some optimism, but that seems like a tall order at this point. On the support side, 395-396 is the pocket the Bulls want to defend. A break and close below there takes us to new lows and keeps the door open for a test of 380-385.

Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance

  • Bias: Neutral/Bullish (cautiously optimistic)
  • Resistance: 408-409, 412 3/4-413, 421 3/4-423 3/4*
  • Pivot: 399-403
  • Support: 395-396*, 380-385


Weekly Export Sales Estimates (released at 7:30am CT)

  • Old Crop: 100,000 to 400,000 MT. Last week, old crop sales were reported at 167,864 MT, a marketing-year low
  • New Crop: 475,000 MT to 1.0 MMT. Last week’s report came in at 710,900 MT.


Average Estimates for August 12th USDA Report

  • Production: 15.105 billion bushels
  • Yield: 182.1 bushels per acre
  • Harvested Acres: 82.974 million
  • 23/24 Ending Stocks: 1.886 billion bushels
  • 24/25 Ending Stocks: 2.106 billion bushels


Below: Daily Chart of December Corn Futures, depicting trendline resistance from the June highs as well as the 20-day moving average (in purple).

Soybeans

Technicals (November) November soybean futures traded into support yesterday which we have had outlined as 1013-1014, that has so far held. A break and close below here and a peek below the psychologically significant $10.00 level seems inevitable. On the flip side, 1025-1031 3/4 continues to be the first hurdle, a pocket that was tested but failed against in yesterday’s trade, with a high of 1028 3/4. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket, it could propel prices back towards more significant resistance from 1041 3/4-1045. This pocket represents trendline resistance from the end of May peak, as well as the 20-day moving average, both of which have been acting as clear resistance points, as shown in the chart below.

Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance

  • Bias: Neutral
  • Resistance: 1046-1050, 1061 1/2-1062 3/4*
  • Pivot: 1025-1031 3/4
  • Support: 1013-1015*, 997-1000

Weekly Export Sales Estimates (released at 7:30am CT)

  • Old Crop: 100,000 to 300,000 MT. Last week, old crop sales were reported at 376,400 MT, up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.
  • New Crop: 400,000 to 900,000 MT. Last week’s report came in at 632,100 MT.

Below: Daily Chart of November Soybean Futures, depicting trendline resistance from the May highs as well as the 20-day moving average (in purple).

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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