Cattle Futures Rip Higher to Start the Year

January 3, 2025 / January 3, 2025 by BlueLineFutures

Cattle Futures Rip Higher to Start the Year

Cattle futures ripped higher to start the year on cold weather forecasts and a strong cash trade. Are new highs next?

Live Cattle (February)

February live cattle futures came out of the gates like a cannon yesterday, trading to the highest price since March. The highs for that time frame were marked at 194.85. Above that and you’re looking at a potential run to contract highs which we marked in the Fall of 2023 at 199.57. Previous resistance will now act as support, that comes in from 192.00-192.70.

Resistance: 194.40-194.85, 199.57
Pivot: 192.00-192.70
Support: 189.72-190.05, 187.00-187.57

Daily Cattle and Beef Summary

Cutout values were a little softer to start the year. Choice cuts were .74 lower to 323.48 and select cuts .29 lower to 294.23. Thursday’s slaughter was reported at 125k head. The 5-area average price for live steers came in at 193.97.

Weekly Export Sales Snapshot

Net sales of 1,400 MT for 2024 were up 29 percent from the previous week, but down 71 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Japan (1,300 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), China (400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Italy (100 MT), and the United Arab Emirates (100 MT), were offset by reductions for South Korea (300 MT) and Hong Kong (200 MT). Net sales of 11,100 MT for 2025 were primarily for South Korea (3,900 MT), Taiwan (1,800 MT), China (1,800 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), and Mexico (1,000 MT). Exports of 12,200 MT were down 26 percent from the previous week and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Japan (3,400 MT), South Korea (3,400 MT), China (2,000 MT), Mexico (1,200 MT), and Taiwan (800 MT).

Seasonal Tendency Update
(updated 12.30.24)

Below is a look at historical price averages for February futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 12.31.24)

Monday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of 5,779 contracts between December 17th and December 24th, shrinking their net long position to 128,569.

Feeder Cattle (March)

Feeder cattle futures surged higher to start the year, trading up to 266.95 which is nearly $12 higher over the course of the last 5 trading days! That sharp acceleration higher has brought the RSI into overbought territory with a reading of 73.08. We’ve seen that as high as 79.51 at the end of November.

Resistance: 267.50*, 270.00*
Pivot: 263.00-263.27
Support: 260.075-260.70, 256.80-257.00, 254.00-254.225**

Seasonal Tendency Update
(updated 12.30.24)

Below is a look at historical price averages for January futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Report
(Updated on 12.31.24)

Monday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of 263 contracts between December 17th and December 24th, shrinking their net long position to 20,315.

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