WTI Crude Rallies Amid Counter-Seasonal Draws and Texas Freeze Concerns

Energy Update

/ by BlueLineFutures

WTI Crude Rallies Amid Counter-Seasonal Draws and Texas Freeze Concerns

WTI Crude Oil Futures showed considerable strength yesterday on low EIA inventories, geopolitical risk, and Texas freeze risk.

WTI Crude Oil Futures (February)

Tuesday’s Settlement: 73.13, up +1.41 [+1.97%]  

WTI Crude Oil Futures showed considerable strength yesterday on low EIA inventories, geopolitical risk, Texas freeze risk. Yesterday’s EIA report showed the sixth straight week of counter-seasonal draws in crude oil as refinery utilization showed a surprise tick upwards. 

Results of the EIA report are as follows [thousand bbls]:

  • Crude Oil: -1,178 vs -2,350 estim 
  • Gasoline: +7,717 vs +1,000 estim
  • Distillates: +6,406 vs -1,150 estim
  • Refinery Utilization: +0.20% vs -0.25% estim

Today, futures are up +0.27 [+0.37%] to 73.40

The macro environment is trading fractured with a risk-on tilt. Equities are higher alongside bonds while gold is lower, silver is higher, and the Dollar is weaker. 

On the data front we get ISM Manufacturing data today at 9am, estimates are for 48.2 while ISM Prices Paid estimates are for 51.8.

Something To Note:

There were reports yesterday that Israel was sending negotiators to Doha for a last ditch effort to negotiate a hostage deal with Hamas. While any type of deal is a long-shot, it should be noted by traders as we head into the weekend.

Technical Analysis

Yesterday, we wanted to see volume trading and a settlement above the major three-star resistance level of 72.43*** to confirm the morning move higher. The rip higher was confirmed as we settled at 73.40 and made a high of 73.73 as futures showed solid strength throughout the session.

Today, crude is trading higher for the fifth straight trading session. Intraday levels include support at 72.62, resistance at yesterday’s high of 73.73, and a pivot and point of balance at 73.15.

While we continue to have a bullish bias – we have seen a considerable move from the pre-Christmas, high 60 handle we were trading in before. Traders would be prudent to take some level of profits on bullish positioning here in the mid 70’s as we head into the weekend.   

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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