Grain Markets Retreat Overnight

Grain Express

/ by BlueLineFutures

Grain Markets Retreat Overnight

Grain markets failed against technical resistance which has led to some profit taking in the overnight and early morning trade

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Soybeans


Technicals
In recent reports we outlined that the technical failure against our 4-star resistance pocket (1055-1062 1/2) could lead to some profit taking from recent buyers. Today the market is working on its third day lower, which erases Monday’s rally and brings the market back near previous resistance and the breakout point from last week ,1021 3/4-1028. From a risk/reward perspective, this may be a shot to look long. The Bulls need to defend this pocket though to keep the recent trend of higher highs and higher lows going. A failure to do so could put prices right back near that technically and psychically significant $10 handle.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1055-1062 1/2****, 1097 1/4-1101****
Pivot: 1033 1/2
Support: 1021 3/4-1028***, 1003-1008 1/4***


Fundamental Notes

Soybean Crush

The monthly U.S. soybean crush jumped to the highest on record in December as several new processing plants have come online in recent months, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Wednesday.

NOPA members, which account for at least 95% of U.S.-processed soybeans, crushed 206.604 million bushels of the oilseed last month, up 6.9% from the 193.185 million bushels crushed in November and up 5.8% from the December 2023 crush of 195.328 million bushels.

Argentina Production Update

In a report, the exchange said it also sees 2024/25 soybean production below its previous forecast of between 53 million and 53.5 million tons, but the institution did not specify a figure. It noted that the lack of rain that has affected Argentina’s agricultural core for the past month will affect soybean yields and has made them rule out “the high productivity scenarios that were considered until recently.”

While the exchange forecasted precipitation in the coming days, it expects the accumulated rainfall to be very moderate.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 1.13.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for January soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 1.14.25 )

Managed Money reduced their net short position to just 28,612 contracts. Keep in mind that this data doesn’t include Friday’s or Monday’s trade, they are likely back to net long for the first time since December 26th 2023.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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