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Grain Markets Retreat After Failing Against Technical Resistance

Grain Express

/ by BlueLineFutures

Grain Markets Retreat After Failing Against Technical Resistance

Grain futures retreat after a strong Wednesday morning trade which has led to weakness in the overnight and early morning trade.  A healthy correction or a trend change?

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Corn


Technicals
Corn futures made a push higher yesterday but reversed to finish lower, erasing the previous day’s gains. That bearish reversal has led to some follow-through pressure overnight, but futures have found some traction at our first support pocket, 479 3/4-480 1/2. The Bulls need to see this pocket defended to prevent further long liquidation down to 470. The trend is still higher highs and higher lows, a break below that 470 level would start to neutralize that trend.

Technical Levels of Importance

  • Resistance: 499-502 1/4**, 508 1/3-510****
  • Pivot: 487-488
  • Support:479 3/4-480 1/2***, 469 1/4-471 1/2***


Wednesday Morning Flash Sale
Export Sales to Unknown Destinations Private exporters reported sales of 136,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 1.21.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for March corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Managed Money increased their net long position to 292,228 futures and options contracts, the largest net long since May of 2022.

Soybeans


Technicals
March soybeans made new highs for the move on yesterday’s open on reports that China was halting shipments from Brazil. However, that headline noted that this started on the 14th (see article below), which helps explain some of the recent strength in what set up to be a textbook “buy the rumor, sell the news” event. The market is seeing some minor weakness overnight as it tries to stabilize near our pivot pocket from 1055-1062 1/2. A failure to get back out above here and we could retrace a lot of the gains we’ve seen since the start of the week.

Technical Levels of Importance

  • Resistance: 1097 1/4-1101****
  • Pivot: 1055-1062 1/2
  • Support: 1018 1/2-1025***, 1003-1008 1/4***


Brazil says soy shipments to China from five firms halted due to contamination

China, the world’s biggest soybean buyer, has stopped receiving Brazilian soybean shipments from five firms after cargoes did not meet plant health requirements, according to a statement from the Brazilian government confirming what Reuters had learned from two sources on Wednesday. The phytosanitary-related suspension comes as Brazil has been bolstering its share of the world’s biggest soybean market at the expense of the No. 2 exporter, the United States. It’s also an unexpected twist in the global agricultural supply chain, as U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s threats of renewed tariffs against Chinese imports have increased geopolitical tensions between the world’s top two economies. The Brazilian agriculture ministry said the “non-conformity” notice it received from China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) refers to five Brazilian companies, which the ministry did not name. One of the sources told Reuters that since Jan. 8 Brazil has suspended shipments to China from Terra Roxa Comercio de Cereais, Olam Brasil and C.Vale Cooperativa Agroindustrial. On Jan. 14, Chinese customs suspended shipments from Cargill Agricola SA and ADM do Brasil, that source added. -Reuters

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 1.21.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for January soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Managed Money are officially net long, to the tune of 34,833 futures/options contracts, their first net long since December 26th 2023.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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