WTI Crude Oil Futures (March)
Friday’s Settlement: 72.53, down -0.20 [-0.27%] for the day, down -2.13 [-2.85%] for the week
WTI Crude Oil futures were whipsawed by tariff-related headlines on Friday. Mid-afternoon, Reuters released an article stating that Canadian and Mexico Tariffs would be delayed from Feb. 1st until March 1st; crude markets reacted to the story with a sharp sell-off.
Into the close, the White House clarified that the Reuters story was misinformation and that tariffs were green-lit to go into place Saturday. Futures rallied back sharply.
Today, futures are higher by +2.09 [+2.88%] to 74.62
The tariffs on Canada and Mexico have officially gone into place and the OPEC+ JMMC meeting has finished.
The official line out of the OPEC+ meeting is that of conformity and sticking to the agreed upon plan. It was known this meeting would not bring about any production changes, but headline risk and a rhetoric shift were possible. There was not much to come out of the meeting – allowing markets to focus back on tariffs.
President Trump has a call scheduled with both Canadian and Mexican leaders today, although the time has not been announced. Whipsaw like volatility is probable through the week as markets focus on the whims of Trump and headlines.
Trump also stated this morning that tariffs targeting the EU were “definitely coming”. Risk is apparent in either direction
Technical Analysis:
Futures gapped higher last night, moving back into our major three-star zone of 74.18-74.49. If futures can settle above 74.49, the technical setup will be much improved. Last week’s momentum clearly favored the downside.
It is tough to trade in environments like these, where headlines and single phone calls can drastically shift the fundamental picture. Traders should position and manage risk accordingly, as two-sided volatility is probable.
The calls with Mexican and Canadian leaders will be the trade focus today – and traders should keep their head on a swivel for headline releases around this. Trading through the U.S. session will be telling on where momentum is leaning for the week.
For intraday trading, our pivot and point of balance is set at…
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