Can the Grain Train Keep Going Up?
Grain markets continued their rally in Tuesday’s trade and are mixed in the overnight and early morning session. Where’s the value trade at?
Soybeans
Monday’s Recap
March Soybean futures ended the day at a one month high of 1075’0 Tuesday, up 16’6 (1.58%). Across all maturities, a heavy 375,307 contracts changed hands, with 182,908 traded in the March maturity. Total open interest closed the session at a one month high of 890,340, gaining 7,039 (0.80%). March open interest increased by 1,496, or 0.47%, to 318,346.
Technicals
March soybeans have had a heck of a start to the week, marking higher lows and now higher highs in yesterdays and last night’s session, testing our resistance pocket from 1073 1/2-1076 1/4. So far, the market has stalled out near here, if the Bulls can keep the momentum going out above here, we could see a beeline towards the psychologically significant $11.00 level. As mentioned previously, Funds have shown a very strong appetite for some of the other agricultural markets, they have just recently dipped their toe back into the Net long side after being net short for what seems like a lifetime. There is serious upside on the chart which could setup for “the most hated rally ever”. Potential catalysts would be trade with China or the market trying to buy some acres into the spring.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1073 1/2-1076 1/4***
Pivot: 1073 1/2-1076 1/4
Support: 1055-1062 1/2***, 1035-1039, 1018 1/2-1025****
Popular Options
Option volumes were greatest for the March 1060 call (9,672) and the April 1000 put (6,164). Options with the largest open interest are the March 1100 call with 20,759, and the March 1000 put with 22,831.
Volatility Update
As measured by SVL, implied volatility ended moderately up, gaining 0.82 to settle at a one week high of 21.45. Down by 0.0186%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) ended the day at 22.07%. The SVL Skew closed the day slightly down, off 0.002 to settle at 1.48.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 2.3.25)
Below is a look at historical price averages for May soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Commitment of Traders Update
Managed money increased their net long position to 56,496 futures and options, the largest net long since November of 2023.
Ready to dig in?
Subscribe to our daily Grain Express for fresh insights into Soybeans, Wheat, and Corn. Get our expert technical analysis, proprietary trading levels, and actionable market bias delivered right to your inbox.
Sign Up for Free Futures Market Research – Blue Line Futures