Grain Markets Lower Overnight. More Pressure to Come or a Buying Opportunity?

Grain Express

/ by BlueLineFutures

Grain Markets Lower Overnight. More Pressure to Come or a Buying Opportunity?

Grain markets provide ample opportunities for shorter term traders on both sides of the market.  These are the levels we are keeping a close eye on for today’s trade.

Soybeans


Thursday’s Recap
Thursday’s Soybean market was mixed with the March contract up by 3’4 to 1060’4. Overall volume was 277,956, with the March contract seeing 129,164 change hands. Across all maturities, open interest finished the day at a one month high of 897,704, up 12,116, or 1.37%. March open interest decreased 1,898 (0.62%), to 301,884.

Technicals
March soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged yesterday and are seeing some weakness in the overnight and early morning trade. Like corn, nearby contracts look to be in the “meat grinder zone” while the new crop contract continues to look more constructive. If the Bulls can clear the technical hurdle from 1077 1/4-1080, we could see that add a technical tailwind which could take prices towards the technically and psychologically significant $11.00 level.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1097 1/4-1100 1/4* Pivot: 1077 1/4-1080 Support: 1055-1062 1/2, 1035-1039, 1018 1/2-1025**


Popular Options
Option trading centered around the Feb ZS1 1070 calls with 2,815 done and the Feb ZS1 1050 puts with volume of 3,663. Greatest volumes in March option trading were seen in the 1080 calls (2,385) and the 1050 puts (3,412). Options with the greatest open interest are the March 1100 call with 20,639, and the March 1000 put with 22,784.

Volatility Update
As measured by SVL, implied volatility closed sharply lower, down by 1.0 to end the day at a one week low of 18.88. Lower by 0.0188%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) ended at 22.75%. The SVL Skew was lower with the 30-day dropping by 0.24, finishing the session at a one week low of 1.32.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 2.3.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for May soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Managed money increased their net long position to 56,496 futures and options, the largest net long since November of 2023.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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