A Choppy Grain Trade Gives Traders Ample Opportunity
Grain markets have been choppy over the last week which may not bode well for long term position traders, but it does present great opportunities for shorter term strategies
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Corn |
Wednesday’s RecapMay Corn futures settled at 504’0 Wednesday, up by 6’0, or 1.20%. Overall, a heavy 608,438 contracts were traded, with 190,528 done in May. Total open interest increased 7,727, or 0.38%, with May higher by 38,709 (6.09%) to 674,314. |
TechnicalsMarch corn futures were able to defend first support to a T yesterday morning, keeping that pocket intact from 479 3/4-482 1/4. From there, the market was able to firm, with the bulk of the strength coming right at the 8:30 open. The market is back near our pivot pocket from 487-488. The Bulls will want to see this defended in an effort to make another push at the technically and psychologically significant $5.00 level. A move above there and a retest of the contract highs from last spring could be in order, that comes in at 508 1/4. |
Technical Levels of Importance
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Popular OptionsOption volumes were largest for the March 510 call (8,481) and the March 485 put (4,974). Options with the highest open interest are the July 500 call with 42,149, and the March 440 put with 19,735. |
Volatility UpdateAs measured by CVL, implied volatility finished the session moderately higher, adding 0.74 to close at 20.86. The 30-day historical volatility finished lower by 0.0201% to 21.11%. The CVL Skew finished down, dropping by 0.2 to end at a one week low of 1.73. |
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 2.10.25)
Below is a look at historical price averages for May corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of nearly 18k futures contracts through 2/4/25, expanding their net long position to 361,531. This is the largest net long position since the spring of 2022.
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