Grains Weekly Recap
The WASDE report featured mostly bullish revisions that resulted in bearish price reactions across the grains.
The WASDE report featured mostly bullish revisions that resulted in bearish price reactions across the grains.
The international Corn balance sheet (Ex China) printed the lowest Stocks / Use ratio since the 1995/96 Crop year coming in at 7.82.
Despite this, May Corn futures finished -6’4 lower on the day to 498’0 while N-Z spreads finished -5’2 lower at 31.
Wheat was the leader in the clubhouse, rallying 18’0 on the week to finish at 613’4. KC Wheat rallied 19’0 to 632’6.
Wheats the bullish move was largely driven by Winter Kill risk in the U.S. as next weeks forecast features an arctic blast over Wheat areas with limited snow cover. Russia’s IKAR agency also lowered its production estimates to 129mmt from 130mmt. Globally, Wheat tenders continue to come through at elevated tonnage levels. The issue is that none of the international tenders have been directed towards the United States. If U.S. Wheat can catch some of this international demand, futures may be set for another leg higher.
Export sales in Corn continued their strength this week while Soybean sales remain disappointing. Wheat export sales did come in at the high end of expectations and show some strength.
Corn spreads rallied back to finish the weak positive after falling to start the week. Old Crop – New Crop spreads in Corn have attracted significant speculator interest as 2025/2026 Acreage Estimates continue to weigh back month futures.
New Crop Soybeans need to start buying acres from December Corn.
Soybean spreads continue to verify cash market weakness, as shown by the seasonal March – July spread below:
The WASDE report featured few changes to the domestic balance sheet, with the majority of revisions coming from South America. Global E/S Changes and S.A. production figures are shown below:
November Soybeans
November 2025 Soybeans closed the week at a key support level.
March Corn
March Corn has rallied into one of our key resistance zones despite open interest rolling into the May contract.
May Wheat
The rally in May Wheat continues to impress with a settlement above a major resistance level. Bullish momentum remains intact.
CFTC Report:
Funds cut net positioning across the board, reducing longs in Corn & Soybeans while covering shorts in both Wheat contracts.
Next week should be interesting as U.S. trade tensions continue to evolve while Corn & Wheat finished the week at key support / resistance levels. In Corn, Bears will continue to point towards Corn’s managed money length, which is showing signs of being largely tied into the Old Crop – New Crop spread, while Bulls will continue to lean on U.S. export strength the slow planting pace of Brazil’s 2nd crop. The potential winter-kill coming through in Wheat will amplify volatility while New Crop Soybeans will continue it’s attempt to snatch some acres from Corn.
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