WTI Crude Oil Rallies on OPEC+ Speculation and Supply Disruptions

ANALYSIS SWITCHED TO APRIL FUTURES **ROLL ADVISED

WTI Crude Oil Futures (April) 

Yesterday’s Settlement: 71.83, up +1.12 [+1.58%] 

WTI Crude Oil’s strong rally was driven by news that OPEC+ may delay output hikes for April and Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.

Yesterday, Ukrainian drones hit a pumping station attached to the major pipeline Caspian pipeline system. The pumping station acts as a terminal for Crude Oil shipped from Kazakhstan into Russia and ending at the Black Sea. The damage is estimated to reduce Kazakhstan’s export flows by 30% for around two months. 

Today, futures are higher by +0.59 [+0.82%] to 72.42

Speculation around OPEC+ delaying their planned output hikes are still driving markets higher alongside yesterday’s Ukrainian attack and reports that the G7 is considering tightening the Russian Oil price cap. 

This morning, Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration and Russian officials talked about eliminating sanctions as part of their talks. This has not been confirmed by President Trump yet. 

The macro environment is trading mixed, with equities lower, the Dollar stronger, bond yields higher, gold flat, and crude oil higher. Trump floated the possibility of 25% tariffs on Auto, Drug, and Chip imports which is the main headline this morning. 

Technical Analysis:

WTI Crude Oil futures showed solid strength yesterday, settling above our major three-star level in March futures. Today, futures are showing relative strength within the commodity complex as we head into the U.S. open. Trading volumes are relatively thin, and the return of selling crude as we get into U.S. trading hours could be a trend that reemerges.