Crude Oil Climbs on Supply Uncertainty and Geopolitical Tensions​

Energy Update

/ by BlueLineFutures

Crude Oil Climbs on Supply Uncertainty and Geopolitical Tensions

ANALYSIS SWITCHED TO APRIL FUTURES **ROLL ADVISED

WTI Crude Oil Futures (April)

Yesterday’s Settlement: 72.10, up +0.27 [+0.38%]

WTI Crude Oil’s strong rally was driven by news that OPEC+ may delay output hikes for April and Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.

Uncertainty surrounding forward supply (OPEC), strikes on Russian infrastructure, and general market tightness banded together to drive crude higher again yesterday.

Indian refiners were reportedly buying Middle Eastern barrels today, but shipping reports from Russian ports this morning show scheduled loadings above Jan figures (1,970 kbps vs. 1,850 kbps Jan). This may be a sign that importers are finding ways around U.S. sanctions, or countries are betting Trump may relax Russian export / tanker controls.

Last night’s API report was as follows [thousand bbls]:

Crude: +3,300
Gasoline: +2,800
Distillates: -2,700

Estimates for today’s EIA report are as follows [thousand bbls]:

Crude: 3,000
Gasoline: -1,000
Distillates: -1,500
Refinery Utilization: -0.60%

Today, futures are higher by +0.35 [+0.49%] to 72.45

Trump is reportedly reviewing Chevron’s exports of Venezuelan Oil. The article was released on Tuesday, and I’m watching it.

In our opinion, Trump’s eagerness to ease tensions with Russia may potentially be an effort to decouple the Kremlin’s ties with Iran / Syrian regimes alongside China, potentially. If Russia does come to the table willingly, Iran and Syria will be on an island for Trump to attack. He had vocalized and acted before regarding “maximum pressure” on Iran, which included military strikes in his last tenure. The news on Trump’s review of Venezuelan exports also helps ease my fears of Russian flows returning online. It seems like Trump is trying to play mix and match with sanctions and possible Russian flows as he attempts to keep oil prices elevated enough to incentivize production while keeping U.S. inflation in check.

However, only Trump knows Trump’s plan, and this outlook is merely speculation.

Technical Analysis:

WTI Crude Oil futures scored a settlement above our key three-star support level of 71.34-71.70*** yesterday, clearing the final hurdle of what now looks like a healthy consolidation.

Our outlook is for a choppy, range-bound trade to end the week with intraday risk being skewed to the upside. Concrete, longer-term positioning is tough in this market and a tactical approach is still favored.

I see some potential for sellers to take control here at the U.S. open. Traders have been paring down risk as they head into the weekends, and institutional buyers executing “Buy on Open” orders present a solid opportunity for traders to sell into volume bids while also paring down risk. Good traders manage risk when they can, not when they have to – words to live by. This is just a hunch, but something to look out for as U.S. morning sellers could come back as they did yesterday.

For intraday trading, our pivot and point of balance is set at…

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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