Grain Markets Retreat to Start the Week
Grain markets were under pressure in the Sunday night and early Monday morning trade as we enter the last week of the month. A healthy correction or a more meaningful top in the markets?
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Corn
Friday’s Recap
Friday’s Corn market was lower with the May contract dropping 7’6 (1.51%), to 505’0, a one week low. Across all maturities, a heavy 606,981 contracts were traded, with 235,049 done in the May maturity. Overall open interest fell 88,550, or 4.29%, to 1,977,309. May rose by 2,064 (0.26%), finishing at 805,278.
Technicals
May corn futures pulled back on Friday after failing against our 517-520 resistance pocket through the first half of the week. Friday’s weakness has bled into the Sunday night and Monday morning trade with prices trading back below the 20-day moving average. Significant support from 495-499 1/2 will be watched closely through this week’s trade. A failure to hold ground here and we could see a wave of long liquidation pressure prices. The next downside objective for the Bear’s would be 481 1/2-484.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 517-520****, 531**
Pivot: 503-505
Support: 495-499 1/2****, 481 1/2-484***
Popular Options
The July 500 put saw the most changing hands with 12,738 contracts done. For May options, the 520 calls were the most actively traded with 1,737 changing hands, and the high volume put was the 480 strike with 4,239 contracts done. Option open interest is greatest for the July 500 calls at 30,247, and the July 450 puts at 19,737.
Volatility Update
Implied Volatility finished moderately lower with CVL off by 0.64, to close the session at a one month low of 19.37. Historical volatility (30-day) ended at 22.16%, adding 0.75%, to a one month high. The CVL Skew closed the session moderately up, adding 0.065 to finish at 1.31.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 2.24.25)
Below is a look at historical price averages for May corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Commitment of Traders Update Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 21k futures contracts, about half of that was short covering and half was new longs. This expands their net long position to 353,533. |
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