Is a Short-Term Trend Change in Order?

Grain Express

/ by BlueLineFutures

Is a Short-Term Trend Change in Order?

Corn, soybeans, and wheat are all flirting with the 20-day moving average, with corn breaking below it for the first time since December 5th. Is a trend change in order?

Corn futures broke below the 20-day moving average for the first time since December 5th, is a trend change in order? Oliver Sloup was on RFD-TV Monday morning to share his thoughts on the price action in grain and livestock markets.

Wheat


Monday’s Recap
Monday’s Wheat market was mixed with the May contract dropping 10’4, or 1.74%, to 593’4, a one week low. Overall, 142,078 contracts were traded, with 73,404 done in May. Across all maturities, open interest dropped 4,028, or 0.98%, to end the session with 408,431 outstanding. The May maturity added 2.19% (4,028) to finish at 204,225.

Technicals
Wheat futures tested and held the 20-day moving average in Monday’s trade. Though it was a lower trade, it looked like it may hold together. The overnight and early morning trade have since- neutralized that bias a bit. If the Bulls fail to find their footing today and defend 585-588 1/4, continued weakness could press prices down to our next support pocket from 574 1/2-577 1/2.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 616 1/2-621 3/4****, 633 1/4-638 3/4****
Pivot: 598 1/4-602 3/4
Support: 585-588-1/4***, 574 1/2-577 1/2****, 564 3/4-569***


Popular Options
Option trading centered around the April 630 calls with 1,175 done and the March ZW1 575 puts with volume of 1,354. Greatest volumes in May option trading were seen in the 600 calls (729) and the 540 puts (770). Calls with the highest open interest are the July 900 strike (10,677), and for the puts are the May 550 strike (4,176).

Volatility Update
Implied Volatility ended slightly up with WVL gaining 0.18, to close the day at 28.80. The 30-day historical volatility finished the day adding 0.55% to a one month high of 30.15%. The WVL Skew finished the day higher, adding 0.33 to settle at 5.53.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 2.24.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for May wheat futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 21k futures contracts, about half of that was short covering and half was new longs. This expands their net long position to 353,533.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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