WTI Crude Oil Struggles Amid Economic Uncertainty and Geopolitical Strains

Energy Update

/ by BlueLineFutures

WTI Crude Oil Struggles Amid Economic Uncertainty and Geopolitical Strains

WTI Crude Oil Futures (April) 

 

Yesterday’s Settlement: 68.93, down -1.77 [-2.50%]

 

Global markets were rocked yesterday after the Consumer Confidence survey for February showed the sharpest drop since August of 2021.

 

A severe risk-off move followed the Confidence number with equities, precious metals, and crude oil all moving sharply lower. The U.S. Dollar index moved lower by -0.20% but provided little support for Crude. While tech stocks drove most of the equity sell-off, crude oil was caught in the wash.   

 

The Citibank Economic Surprise Index has turned negative for the first time since September of 2023 as economic pessimism continues to mount. Oil markets closed at their lowest level this year.

 

Around 3 pm, Trump signed an executive order instructing the Commerce Department to explore copper tariffs, driving the metal up over +2% almost immediately.

 

Also, Trump was quoted later saying, “We don’t need Canadian oil or lumber.” The threat of trade restrictions globally lingers. Heads should remain on swivels.  

 

Today, futures are flat, +0.03 [0.03%] to 69.96

 

Futures are flat this morning on little news outside of the Iran report detailed below. The world is digesting a slowing U.S. economy and the effect of Trump’s trade tensions. The velocity of global trade and dollar flows is slowing – no one wins in a trade war.   

 

The API report was as follows [thousand bbls]:

  • Crude: -600
  • Gasoline: +500
  • Distillates: -1,100

Estimates for today’s EIA report are as follows [thousand bbls]

  • Crude: 2,400 
  • Gasoline: -1,400
  • Distillates: -2,762
  • Refinery Utilization: -0.20%

 

The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) reported this morning that Iran has increased their enriched uranium stockpile by 50%, and that the country is refusing to cooperate.

 

“The significantly increased production and accumulation of high enriched uranium by Iran, the only non-nuclear weapon state to produce such material, is of serious concern.” – IAEA

 

Trump will not take this report kindly and will likely find ways to increase pressure on the country, further deepening geopolitical strain. 

 

Technical Analysis:

 

WTI Crude Oil futures fell sharply yesterday, blowing through key three-star support at 70.03-70.35***. The chart looks like it will consolidate within a widened trading range between 70.03*** and 68.00***.

 

We would like to see a retest of the level…. 

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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