USDA Outlook Forum Projected Acres
Breaking News
Grains Mixed in Early Morning Trade
Grain markets are mixed following the release of USDA outlook projected acres
Corn
Wednesday’s Recap
For the fourth consecutive session, Corn futures closed lower, with the May contract settling Wednesday at 493’4, dropping by 0’6. Across all maturities, 492,811 contracts were traded, with 221,417 done in the May maturity. Total open interest fell by 6,754 (0.35%) to end the session with 1,910,318 outstanding. The May maturity rose by 1.17%, or 6,754, to finish at 823,996.
Technicals
May corn futures continued to bleed lower after failing to get back out above our pivot pocket, which we outlined in yesterday’s report as 499 1/2-503 1/2. As mentioned in yesterday’s report, we feel the Bears have the technical advantage until the Bulls can achieve consecutive closes back above this pocket. The first downside objective below yesterday’s low comes in from 481 1/2-484. Below that and it could get more interesting, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see that hold and lead to some consolidation.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 517-520****, 531**
Pivot: 499 1/2-503 1/2
Support: 481 1/2-484***
Fundamental Notes
Agricultural lender CoBank projects that U.S. farmers will plant 94.55 million acres of corn in 2025, up about 4% from 2024
Popular Options
Option trading centered around the May 520 calls with 6,561 changing hands and the April 490 puts with volume of 3,792. Options with the highest open interest are the July 500 call with 29,854, and the July 450 put with 19,844.
Volatility Update
Implied Volatility finished the day lower with CVL down by 0.49, to end the session at 19.80. Off by 0.0480% to a one week low, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) finished at 20.98%. The CVL Skew was slightly up with the 30-day gaining 0.012, closing the session at 1.24.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 2.24.25)
Below is a look at historical price averages for May corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 21k futures contracts, about half of that was short covering and half was new longs. This expands their net long position to 353,533.
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