WTI Crude Oil Eyes Key Resistance Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Market Volatility

Energy Update

/ by BlueLineFutures

WTI Crude Oil Eyes Key Resistance Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Market Volatility

WTI Crude Oil Futures (April) 

Yesterday’s Settlement: 68.62, down -0.31 [-0.45%]

WTI Crude Oil futures fell marginally yesterday, holding around the lows for the year as global markets continued to digest the theory of a slowing U.S. economy. Trump also said that Mexico / Canada tariffs would be delayed until April, that comment was reversed this morning. 

Equity markets finished the day fairly flat while precious metals rallied, and treasury yields fell for the sixth session in a row.  

Tariffs, trade tensions, and slowing global economic activity continue to weigh on forward-looking crude oil demand projections. 

Yesterday’s EIA report showed an unexpected draw in Crude Oil inventories against unexpected builds in products. U.S. Oil refineries continue to surprise the market with their high level of capacity utilization. Figures for the report are as follows [thousand bbls]:

  • Crude: -2,332 vs 2,400 estim
  • Gasoline: 369 vs -1,400 estim 
  • Distillates: 3,908 vs -2,762 estim 
  • Refinery Utilization: +1.60% vs -0.20% estim

Today, futures are higher by +0.98 [+1.43%] to 69.60

Trump put out a post on Truth Social this morning, saying that Canada & Mexico tariffs will go ahead as planned on March 4th, reversing his comments from yesterday where he talked about delaying them until April. He also announced the additional 10% Chinese tariffs will go into place March 4th and that global reciprocal tariffs will go into place April 2nd.

Global markets were trading risk-on prior to the announcement. Trump’s post spiked the dollar sharply and is lurching forward volatility as we head into the U.S. open.

Tomorrow’s January PCE number is the highlight of the week for Macro Data, this morning we got Jobless Claims and revisions to 4Q GDP and PCE figures – GDP was kept in-line while PCE inflation figures were revised higher by 20bps.   

Technical Analysis:

WTI Crude Oil futures are approaching our major three-star level of 70.03-70.35***. Highlighted in yellow on the chart, we’ve been looking at this level as a longer-term pivot point for this week. 

If futures can close this week out above this level, bearish momentum would look stymied for the time being. If not, a trading range between 68.00*** and 70.03*** looks probable. We continue to hold a neutral stance, paring back size and being very selective on trading opportunities as forward momentum looks opaque.   

For intraday trading, our pivot and point of resistance is set at…

 

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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