WTI Crude Oil Futures Sink as OPEC+ Surprise and Tariff War Weigh on Sentiment

Energy Update

/ by Blue Line Futures

WTI Crude Oil Futures Sink as OPEC+ Surprise and Tariff War Weigh on Sentiment

WTI Crude Oil Futures (April)

 

Yesterday’s Settlement: 68.37, down -1.39 [-1.99%]

 

Crude markets were rocked yesterday by OPEC+’s announcement that April output hikes will go ahead as planned. Following the announcement, Crude Oil fell sharply.

 

The OPEC+ announcement caught traders off guard. As the group did not outwardly deny the rumors that the April hikes would be delayed when they surfaced two to three weeks ago, a big chunk of the market took it as affirmation that the delays were, in fact, the truth.

 

The group will increase production by 138k bpd in April and will gradually increase production by a total of 2.2mln bpd by September of 2026. The April output hike may not be enough to fix the global inventory situation in a month, but the additional barrels will help.

 

Elsewhere, tariffs were placed on Mexico and Canada, with Canadian energy getting hit with a 10% tariff. I haven’t seen any word of exemptions for Mexican crude. China’s additional 10% tariff also went into place.

 

Canada and China retaliated with their own tariff package last night, while Mexico’s is to come on Sunday. China’s tariffs were largely targeted at U.S. crops.

 

News also broke late in the day that the Trump administration was looking for ways to ease sanctions on Russia as they look to end the war. This is another fairly bearish headline catalyst traders should be aware of.

 

Today, April Futures are lower by -0.83 [-1.21%] to 67.54

 

Global commodity markets are trading risk-off as markets try to digest the tit-for-tat tariffs. One bright spot in this morning’s trade is that U.S. Diesel is trading higher driving up the board crack spread.

 

There are rumblings of the Israel – Hamas war restarting, as Israel has made comments over the past two days about their uneasiness in extending a ceasefire.

 

Globally, markets are trading risk-off, with equities and commodities trading mostly lower with bonds higher. Precious metals are holding their bid on the flight to safety.

 

Howard Lutnick reiterated this morning that these tariffs are tied to the flow of fentanyl, and they could be repealed if the flow stops.

 

Technical Analysis:

 

Well, our hope of a settlement above our longer-term pivot zone of 70.03-70.35*** and some hope of the chart showing repair were dashed quickly yesterday. The OPEC+ headline was unexpected, driving crude down immediately to our major three-star support level of 67.60-68.00***. Markets traded through this level on thin volume early this morning but the zone is holding for now.

 

This market is awash in bearish headlines right now, and judging how these tariffs play out is borderline impossible.

 

A week ago, we would have loved to have a shot at this buy level, but with all the new headline risks out there, our confidence is not as strong. It is a low confidence buy level with all the headwinds we’re facing this week.

 

For intraday trading our pivot and point of balance is our three-star level of….

 

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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