Grains Recover on Potential Tariff Relief

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

Grains Recover on Potential Tariff Relief

Grain markets traded higher in the overnight and early morning trade on rumors that Mexico and Canada may be willing to negotiate trade.

Grain markets have found their footing in the overnight and early morning trade.  Partly thanks to oversold conditions and a late day headline from Reuters regarding trade.

March 4 (Reuters) – U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Fox Business on Tuesday that President Donald Trump will reach a middle ground with Canada and Mexico on tariffs and an announcement to that effect was expected on Wednesday.

 

Soybeans


Tuesday’s Recap
May Soybean futures finished the day at a one month low of 999’0 Tuesday, off 12’4 or 1.24%. Combined volume was a heavy 389,095, with May seeing 211,927 done. Total open interest increased 10,628, or 1.32%, to 813,701. May fell by 35 (0.0090%), finishing at 389,111.

Technicals
May soybeans took a nosedive lower yesterday, probing below the technically and psychologically significant support pocket from 996 1/4-1000, but ultimately closing just above it. That will continue to be watched closely. Consecutive closes back below this pocket or a close below yesterday’s low and the conversation quickly turns to the possibility of retesting the contract lows. On the resistance side of things, 1024-1030 1/4 is the pocket for the Bulls to get back out above to start neutralizing the technical damage that has been done over the last week.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1024-1030 1/4***, 1037 1/4- 1038 1/2****
Pivot: 1008
Support: 996 1/4-1000***, 977 1/4**, 955 1/2***


Popular Options
Option trading centered around the April 1040 calls with 8,393 done and the April 960 puts with volume of 7,820. Greatest volumes in May option trading were seen in the 1080 calls (1,840) and the 900 puts (7,304). Options with the most open interest are the Nov 1200 call with 12,626, and the May 1000 put with 17,175.

Volatility Update
Soybean implied volatility ended sharply up as SVL gained 1.9 to finish the day at 19.04, a one week high. The 30-day historical volatility finished the day losing 2.42% to a one month low of 17.00%. The SVL Skew closed slightly down, off by 0.34 to end at -0.83, a one month low.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 3.3.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for May soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).


Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 10k futures/options contracts, shrinking their net long position to 8,209.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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