Excitement in the Grain Markets

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

Excitement in the Grain Markets

Grain markets have seen volatility rise recently, presenting shorter term trade opportunities for both the Bulls and the Bears. These are the levels to keep an eye on into the last trading day of the week.

Corn


Thursday’s Recap
Corn futures were higher Thursday with the May contract finishing the session at 464’0, up by 8’2, or 1.81%, over a sizable trading range. Across all maturities, a heavy 649,283 contracts changed hands, with 313,858 traded in the May maturity. Overall open interest decreased by 195 (0.0106%) to 1,835,602. May fell by 16,861, or 2.18%, finishing at 756,627.

Technicals
Corn futures were able to keep the momentum going yesterday, clearing our first resistance hurdle from 461-463 3/4 which opened the door for a swift move towards our next pocket which we outlined yesterday as 471 3/4-472 3/4. The market stalled out near this pocket which has brough prices back to the 461-463 3/4 pocket. The Bulls will want to see this pocket defended to keep the hopes of a bigger relief rally alive. Our bias in the near term is pretty neutral as we see the average daily range over the last 14 days of nearly 12 cents presenting a lot of setups on both sides of the market, truly a trader’s market. Talking with clients we’ve emphasized the importance of capitalizing on moves, because even good positions are only one unpredictable headline away from turning into a bad position.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 472 3/4-473 1/2***, 480-484***
Pivot: 461-463 3/4
Support: 454 1/2-457 3/4***, 442 1/4-443 3/4****

Popular Options
Option volumes were highest for the July 480 call (4,822) and the May 440 put (5,719). Calls with the most open interest are the July 500 strike (33,400), and for the puts are the July 450 strike (19,219).

Volatility Update
Corn implied volatility ended sharply lower as CVL lost 1.2 to finish at 24.91. The 30-day historical volatility finished higher by 0.65% to a one month high of 24.32%. The CVL Skew was moderately higher, up by 0.34 to end the day at 2.05, a one week high.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 3.3.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for May corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of about 26k futures contracts, nearly all of that was long liquidation. That shrinks their net long position to 333,843.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Research Disclaimer

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Blue Line Futures LLC shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a Solicitation for entering into a futures transaction. Blue Line Futures LLC does not employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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