WASDE Day for Grain Markets. Does the Market Care?

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

WASDE Day for Grain Markets. Does the Market Care?

Grain markets are mixed in the early morning trade as we await the monthly WASDE report. Historically, this report does not hold many surprises. Will that be the case this year?

WASDE Report out at 11am CT

US Ending Stocks Estimates

  • Corn: 1.516 billion bushels
  • Soybeans: 379 million bushels
  • Wheat: 797 million bushels

 

South American Production 

Brazil

  • Corn: 126.07mmt
  • Soybeans: 169.18mmt

 

Argentina

  • Corn: 49.0mmt
  • Soybeans: 48.88mmt

 

 

Soybeans


Monday’s Recap
Monday’s Soybean market was lower with the May contract losing 11’0, or 1.07%, to 1014’0. Overall volume was a light 198,455, with May seeing 105,502 done. Combined open interest increased 10 (0.0012%) to end the session with 811,085 outstanding. The May maturity rose 0.53%, or 10, to finish at 380,303.

Technicals
Soybeans narrowly hung on to support yesterday, a pocket that we’ve outlined as 1008-1013. That pocket remains intact for today’s trade. A failure there and the selling could snowball down near the technically and psychologically significant $10.00 level. Futures are attempting to retest our pivot pocket, above that and the more significant resistance hurdle comes into play, 1036 1/2-1042. We remain a little more optimistic on the new crop contract VS front month.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1036 1/2-1042****, 1051 1/4-1053 1/4**, 1066 3/4****
Pivot: 1024-1030 1/4
Support: 1008-1013***, 996 1/4-1000***, 977 1/4**


Popular Options
The May 1020 put saw the most changing hands with 2,860 contracts done. Option open interest is highest for the Nov 1200 calls at 15,229, and the May 1000 puts at 16,202.

Volatility Update
Implied Volatility finished the day moderately up with SVL higher by 0.2, to close the session at 17.06. Historical volatility (30-day) settled at 17.82%, adding 0.0409%. The SVL Skew was slightly higher with the 30-day up 0.19, ending at 0.08.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 3.10.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for May soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).


Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 45k futures/options contracts, majority of which were new short positions. Funds now hold a net short position of 35,487.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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