WTI Crude Oil Futures Gain as Softer CPI Sparks Risk-On Sentiment

WTI Crude Oil Futures (April) 

Yesterday’s Settlement: 66.25, up +0.22 [+0.33%] 

WTI Crude Oil futures were dragged lower after Ukraine announced they had accepted a U.S. led ceasefire package. The deal now hinges upon Russia’s acceptance. Futures had rallied strongly to start the day, but still settled above support. 

Trump spooked markets yesterday by flip-flopping on a tariff package again. He stated in the morning that Steel & Aluminum tariffs would go to 50% against Canada. This was walked back later in the day as Ontario’s energy premier softened rhetoric surrounding electricity exports to the U.S.

Houthi Rebels stated yesterday they would begin attacking Israeli ships within the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The talk is largely symbolic, as no Israeli ships have trafficked in those waters for months. But, this is a reminder that attacks could begin again against any Western ship if the blockade on Gaza aid is not lifted in the next few days.

The EIA tightened their forward looking balance sheet and lowered their 2025 projected surplus. The adjustment better reflects the current supply tightness and the effects of a delayed OPEC+ production hike.

Today, April Futures are higher by +1.00 [+1.51%] to 67.25

This morning’s CPI report came in softer than expected and is providing a risk-on bid to the global trade this morning. Equities, crude oil, the Dollar, and precious metals are all trading higher while treasuries are moving lower. The softer CPI print wasn’t weak enough to increase anxieties surrounding the U.S. economic situation, and not hot enough to back the Fed further into a corner. 

Last night’s API report was as follows [thousand bbls]:

• Crude +4,250
• Gasoline -4,600
• Distillates +421

Estimates for today’s EIA report are as follows [thousand bbls]:

• Crude +2,000
• Gasoline -1,613
• Distillates +0
• Refinery Utilization +0.45% 

Technical Analysis:

Futures are trading above yesterday’s high of 67.17 after bouncing off our major three-star support level yesterday.

If futures can pierce our longer term pivot-pocket of 67.60-68.00*** and settle above the 68.00 level, the chart will be setup for the next leg higher or a sideways trade at higher levels.

For now, the chart indicates a trading range between our three-star support level of 65.99*** and our pivot-pocket of 67.60-68.00***. Headline risk is still very apparent and traders should still prioritize risk-management.

While the bearish slide looks to be stymied, don’t be lulled to sleep on risk-management.

For intraday trading, our pivot and point of balance is set at….