A Choppy Grain Trade Creates Opportunity

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

A Choppy Grain Trade Creates Opportunity

Grain markets have been choppy to start the week, offering a little something for participants on both sides of the markets. Is a choppy trade going to remain the trend through the remainder of the month?

Corn


Monday’s Recap
Monday’s Corn market was higher with the May contract up 2’4 to 461’0. Overall, 375,615 contracts were traded, with 180,875 done in May. Total open interest fell by 18,607, or 1.01%, with May down by 14,440 (2.07%) to 684,066.

Technicals
May corn futures attempted to get something going to the upside early in yesterday’s trade but ultimately failed to make any meaningful progress. Weakness has crept in overnight with prices trading back to our first support pocket from 454 1/2-457 3/4. A break and close below here and we could see a further retracement towards the lows from the start of the month, 442 1/2.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 480-484***, 486 1/2-488 1/2****
Pivot: 472 3/4-473 1/2
Support: 454 1/2-457 3/4***


Popular Options
Option trading centered around the July 550 calls with 11,184 done and the April 455 puts with volume of 4,780. In May options, the most actively traded call was the 480 strike with 4,641 done, and the 460 put leads with volume of 2,930. Option open interest is highest for the July 500 calls at 35,997, and the July 450 puts at 20,039.

Volatility Update
Corn implied volatility finished moderately down as CVL fell 0.95 to close the session at 26.80. Dropping 0.44% to a one week low, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) finished at 23.28%. The CVL Skew closed the session moderately lower, off 0.28 to finish at 0.63, a one week low.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 3.17.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for May corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).


Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of about 70k futures contracts, shrinking their net long position to 132,412

Soybeans

Monday’s Recap
Soybean futures were mostly higher Monday with the May contract finishing the session at 1015’4, off by 0’4. Overall, a light 148,483 contracts changed hands, with 80,925 traded in May. Combined open interest rose by 2,176 (0.26%) to 823,359. May fell 1,367, or 0.37%, finishing at 372,914.

Technicals
The soybean chart is looking slightly8 more constructive than corn as we are closer towards the middle of the range from the month and holding ground over the last 2-weeks. 1008-1013 continues to be the pivot pocket we are keeping an eye on, a failure here and a break back to the lows of the month near 991-995 3/4 would be the next downside objective. On the resistance side of things, 1024-1030 1/4 is the hurdle for the Bulls to clear.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Research Disclaimer

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Blue Line Futures LLC shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a Solicitation for entering into a futures transaction. Blue Line Futures LLC does not employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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