Cattle Futures Continue to Run Higher

Livestock Round Up

/ by Blue Line Futures

Cattle Futures Continue to Run Higher

Feeder cattle futures make new contract highs, are new highs for live cattle next? Can lean hogs join the rally?

Daily Cattle and Beef Summary 

Cutout values were stronger on Monday afternoon with choice cuts 2.89 higher to 307.90 and select cuts 1.58 higher to 307.90.   Monday’s slaughter was reported at 114k head.  Monday’s 5-area average price for live steers was reported at 205.30.

The CME feeder Cattle Index is at 283.27 with the NBW Real-Time Index showing 284.22 as of this morning.

Feeder Cattle (April)

April feeder cattle futures made new contract highs yesterday.  Like live cattle futures prices, the sharp move higher in feeders over the last two weeks has not been enough to move the RSI into overbought territory, though it is close with a reading of 68.94.  We saw a reading as high as 79.85 in November of last year.  This market continues to look resilient as it doesn’t seem like anything can stop it.  With markets at contract highs, finding the next meaningful point of technical resistance becomes an even tricker task.  Bulls have clear control, only a close back below 278.35-279 would start to put that into question.  

  • Resistance: 
  • Pivot: 281.525 
  • Support:  278.35-279.00****, 276.00-276.825***, 273.50-274.65***


Seasonal Tendency Update
(updated 3.17.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for April futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).



Commitment of Traders Report
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds holding a net long position to the tune of 28,767 futures contracts, little changed from the prior week which continues nearly 2-month trend of little change.

Lean Hogs (April)
April lean hogs traded back into resistance from 88.00-88.70. If the Bulls can chew through and close back above this pocket, it would not be so crazy to think we could see a move back higher like we’ve seen in the cattle complex. This week’s price action could have big implications in the tone for the rest of the month. Keep in mind that Fund positioning is just a fraction of what it was, so an overcrowded trade is no longer a concern.

 

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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