A Choppy Trade in Grain Markets

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

A Choppy Trade in Grain Markets

Grain markets remain choppy this week as market participants hone in on the technicals and wait for new news.

Soybeans


Tuesday’s Recap
May Soybean futures settled at 1012’6 Tuesday, off by 2’6, in lower trade across the board. Overall, a light 188,413 contracts were traded, with 100,675 done in May. Combined open interest increased 7,115 (0.86%) to end the session with 830,800 outstanding. The May maturity rose 0.76%, or 7,115, to finish at 376,065.

Technicals
A choppy sideways trade has been the path of least resistance so far in this week’s trade, keeping technical levels intact from yesterday’s report. We wish there was something more exciting to say here, but with a narrowing trading range there’s not much to say that hasn’t been said this week. We have mentioned liking November beans a little bit more on a longer-term time frame as a potential market that could surprise. With volatility relatively low we like looking at calls and call spreads for some limited risk exposure in the event that there is an event between now and harvest that sparks some excitement. If you’d like to discuss strategies that may be suitable for you, please contact the trade desk.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1024-1030 1/4***, 1036 1/2-1042****
Pivot: 1008-1013
Support: 991-995 3/4****, 977 1/4**

Popular Options
Option trading centered around the April 1020 calls with 1,746 traded and the April 1000 puts with volume of 2,263. In May options, the high volume call was in the 1030 strike with 1,378 changing hands, and the 1020 put leads with volume of 2,044. Options with the highest open interest are the Nov 1200 call with 15,430, and the May 1000 put with 17,580.

Volatility Update
As measured by SVL, implied volatility finished the day moderately lower, down 0.22 to close at 18.15. The 30-day historical volatility ended down by 0.89% to a one month low of 15.57%. The SVL Skew was sharply higher with the 30-day up 0.14, closing at 0.35.


Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 3.17.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for May corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).



Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of about 70k futures contracts, shrinking their net long position to 132,412

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Blue Line Futures LLC shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a Solicitation for entering into a futures transaction. Blue Line Futures LLC does not employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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