Grain futures slide lower to start a new week of trade
Corn, soybeans, and wheat futures re all lower in the early morning trade. Is a technical breakdown looming or will price consolidation continue ahead of the USDA report at the end of the month?
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Corn
Friday’s Recap
Corn futures were lower Friday with the May contract finishing the session at 464’2, off by 4’6 (1.01%). Across all maturities, 374,620 contracts were traded, with 182,427 done in the May maturity. Overall open interest increased by 19,601, or 1.08%, with May gaining 669 (0.10%) to 659,454.
Technicals
Corn futures continue to trade mostly sideways, keeping our daily commentary pretty darn boring. Ranges are continuing to narrow which is starting to limit the “meat on the bone” for even the short-term traders. A breakout above resistance or below support could trigger a bigger directional move, but that may not come until we get new information from the USDA at the end of the month.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 472 3/4-473 1/2***, 480-484***, 486 1/2-488 1/2****
Pivot: 462 1/2-465 1/2
Support: 454 1/2-457 3/4***, 442 1/2*
Popular Options
Option volumes were highest for the May 500 call (4,643) and the May 465 put (3,104). Option open interest is greatest for the July 500 calls at 35,281, and the July 450 puts at 19,743.
Volatility Update
Implied Volatility closed the session down with CVL off 0.47, to finish at a one week low of 25.34. Down by 0.23%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) settled at 23.31%. The CVL Skew finished moderately lower, off 0.13 to close the day at 1.49.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 3.24.25)
Below is a look at historical price averages for July corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of about 39k futures contracts, shrinking their net long position to 107,270
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