Grain Markets Drift Lower in the Overnight Trade

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

Grain Markets Drift Lower in the Overnight Trade

Grain markets saw minor selling pressure in the overnight trade but have so far been able to defend support.

Soybeans


Monday’s Recap
Soybean futures were lower Monday with the May contract finishing the session at a one week low of 1007’2, off by 2’4, in a quiet session. Overall volume was a light 169,202, with the May maturity seeing 88,648 traded. Across all maturities, open interest rose by 1,668 (0.20%) to 856,201. May fell by 708, or 0.19%, finishing at 378,008.

Technicals
Soybeans continue to drift lower in the early morning trade. The slow bleed over the last several sessions has yet to inflect any significant technical damage. A break and close below 991-995 3/4 would likely be that trigger point. Below that and the conversation of retesting the December lows becomes very realistic, that comes in at 955 1/2.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1024-1030 1/4***, 1036 1/2-1042****
Pivot: 1008-1013
Support: 991-995 3/4****, 977 1/4**

Fundamental Notes
Brazilian farmers, who have harvested most of their soybean fields across the nation, are set to produce 165.9 million metric tons in the 2024/25 season, 2.3 million tons less than previously forecast, consultancy AgRural said on Monday.

AgRural said that a drought in southern Brazil, impacting mainly Rio Grande do Sul state, has affected the supply outlook in the country, the world’s biggest producer and exporter of the oilseed.

Popular Options
The May 960 put saw the most changing hands with 4,104 contracts traded. Calls with the most open interest are the Nov 1200 strike (15,703), and for the puts are the May 1000 strike (16,634).

Volatility Update
Soybean implied volatility was moderately down as SVL fell by 0.27 to end the session at 16.73, a one week low. Off by 0.0095% to a one month low, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) ended the day at 14.72%. The SVL Skew was moderately up with the 30-day higher by 0.097, finishing at 0.54.

Seasonal Tendencies Update

(Updated on 3.24.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for July soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).  


Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of roughly 6k futures contracts. This expanded their net short position to 22,005 contracts.

 

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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