WTI Crude Oil Holds Gains Amid Ceasefire Uncertainty, Key Levels in Focus
Bias shift to Neutral from Neutral / Bullish
WTI Crude Oil Futures (May)
Yesterday’s Settlement: 69.00 down -0.11 [-0.16%]
WTI Crude Oil futures finished the day relatively flat after posting a strong morning rally. The morning rally seemed to be a continuation of the risk-on move that started on Monday, driven by a softer tariff tone out of President Trump, macroeconomic green shoots in China, and the announcement of a tack-on tariffs to buyers of Venezuelan Crude.
The announcement of a partial ceasefire for Russia – Ukraine dashed the rally, driving crude off the highs to a low of 68.52.
Trump stated yesterday that “Big Business News” was coming today, it’s unclear what that is exactly, but traders should expect some type of announcement out of the White House today.
Today, futures are higher by +0.60 [+0.87%] to 69.60
The ceasefire, agreed to yesterday, is likely already off. Last night, immediately following the signing of the ceasefire, Russia launched a sizeable drone attack on the port city of Mykolaiv.
Russia’s violation of the ceasefire comes as no surprise, and any official ceasefire will be a bumpy, volatile road. Outright and blatant lying has been an important part of Russia’s foreign policy toolkit over the past 20 years, and traders should use caution when gauging the barrage of ceasefire headlines that are likely to come over the next week.
Technical Analysis:
We shifted our bias back to Neutral yesterday after catching the meat of this rally back up near the 70.00 target. While our fundamental bias still tilts bullish, the risk reward at this level is not as attractive as the mid to low 60’s.
Having said that, if we do consolidate into this new trading range between the…
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