Grain Markets Find Their Footing Overnight

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

Grain Markets Find Their Footing Overnight

Grain markets were mostly lower on Wednesday but have found their footing in the early morning trade. Can the market find relief ahead of Monday’s big USDA report?

Quarterly Stocks Estimates
Prospective Planting Estimates

Wheat


Wednesday’s Recap
May Wheat futures finished the day at a contract low of 535’2 Wednesday, losing 8’0 or 1.47%. Overall, 112,445 contracts changed hands, with 57,623 traded in May. Across all maturities, open interest closed the session at a one month high of 467,069, up by 2,180, or 0.47%. May open interest added 892 (0.40%), to 223,699.

Technicals
Wheat futures continued to slide lower yesterday, settling right in our support pocket from 530-537. Additional pressure was seen in the overnight trade with the market coming within 2 cents of the contract lows that were marked at the start of the month. If the Bulls can defend support from 530-537 on a closing basis, relief back towards 544-547 3/4 seems pretty attainable in the short term.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 551 1/2-555***, 569-570 1/4***, 575 3/4-577 1/2****
Pivot: 544-547 3/4
Support: 530-537***


Popular Options
Option trading centered around the May 580 calls with 6,654 done and the May 520 puts with volume of 3,969. Calls with the greatest open interest are the May 580 strike (12,561), and for the puts are the May 540 strike (6,051).

Volatility Update
As measured by WVL, implied volatility ended the session down, off 0.58 to close at a one week low of 29.75. The 30-day historical volatility closed the session up 0.25% to a one week high of 28.30%. The WVL Skew was lower with the 30-day down 0.4, closing the session at a one week low of 6.25.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 3.24.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for July wheat futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).


Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 3.24.25)

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 3k futures/options. This puts their net short position at 80,668.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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