A New Month, a New Market?

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

A New Month, a New Market?

Grains are green to start a new month of trade. How much upside potential is left?

Corn


Monday’s Recap
Corn futures were mostly lower Monday with the May contract finishing the session at 457’2, gaining 4’0. Overall volume was a heavy 724,556, with the May maturity seeing 282,804 traded. Across all maturities, open interest finished the session at a one month high of 1,879,576, higher by 35,581 (1.93%). May open interest lost 5,077, or 0.82%, to 617,837.

Technicals
Corn futures were able to leave some friendly tails on the day candles in the last two sessions, which puts prices in a good spot to see more recovery as we start a new month of trade. 462 1/2-465 1/2 is the barrier that the Bulls want to get out above to spark more relief into the mid 470’s. A failure to do so could just leave us rangebound with support from 440-442 1/2 remaining stout.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 462 1/2-465 1/2**, 472 3/4-473 1/2***
Pivot: 454 1/2-457 3/4
Support: 440-442 1/2***, 432 3/4-434 1/4***


Popular Options
Option volumes were highest for the July 460 call (29,515) and the July 460 put (28,999). For May options, the 480 calls had the highest volume with 17,678 traded, and the most actively traded put was the 450 strike with 11,616 contracts done. Calls with the highest open interest are the July 460 strike (61,906), and for the puts are the July 460 strike (61,015).

Volatility Update
Corn implied volatility finished sharply lower as CVL dropped 3.7 to close at 24.38, a one week low. The 30-day historical volatility finished the session losing 0.26% to a one month low of 20.36%. The CVL Skew was sharply higher with the 30-day gaining 0.64, finishing at a one month high of 2.58.


Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 3.31.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for July corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of about 32.5k futures and options contracts, shrinking their net long position to 74,607.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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