Markets Brace for Trump’s Tariff Decision as S&P, NQ Test Key Support

Morning Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

Bill Baruch is back at the NYSE for the CNBC Halftime Report, for the hour, ahead of today's tariff announcement. Tune in!

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E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5674.50, up 21.25

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 19604.50, up 165.00

President Trump’s long-awaited ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement is due today at 3:00 pm CT. Uncertainties have flourished, and sentiment has eroded historically quickly. Will today’s passing help alleviate uncertainties, leading to a lift in sentiment and ultimately culminating in a stock market rally? We believe this is highly plausible if the White House does not announce a blanket 20% tariff. A universal 20% has been weighed by the administration instead of more targeted tariffs, but late yesterday, there was news of a third option that includes a broad tariff on a subset of nations not as high as 20%. This new option is seen as a middle ground after pushback from fellow Republicans and industry leaders.

ADP Payrolls this morning came in stronger than expected at 155k versus 118k, led by gains in the manufacturing industry. This comes after more stagflationary data yesterday that showed Manufacturing PMI contracting despite a faster expansion in the Prices component.

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are on their backfoot this morning after China was said to restrict companies from investing in the U.S., as it toughens rhetoric ahead of today’s announcement. Price action erased all of yesterday’s strength and is now retesting an area that it struggled early yesterday before ultimately gaining traction and rallying. Major three-star support in the E-mini S&P comes in at 5595.25-5600, and we must see this hold today. The E-mini NQ is holding above its major three-star level at 19,191-19,261. As the session unfolds, we must see strength that regains our wide Pivot and point of balance in the E-mini S&P in order to create separation from what is seen by some as a cliff, with this pocket coming in at….

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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