Will Long Liquidation Continue in Cattle?

Livestock Round Up

/ by Blue Line Futures

Will Long Liquidation Continue in Cattle?

Outside markets are “risk-off” again in the early morning trade following retaliatory tariffs from China. Will that prompt more long liquidation in cattle in Friday’s Trade?

Live Cattle (June)

June live cattle futures opened lower yesterday but held together fairly well considering the precipitous decline in the outside markets.  Outside markets are sharply lower again in the early morning trade following retaliatory tariffs from China.  The VIX (volatility index) was rather subdued yesterday despite the risk-off trade, that index is spiking in a more meaningful manner which is more indicative of panic (potentially getting closer to peak panic).  With the probability of a recession continuing to increase this week, we see that as a significant headwind for cattle, especially with the way Funds are positioned.  High prices over the last year have been unable to really dent demand, but high prices coupled with a potential weaker consumer is the concern now.

  • Resistance: 206.92-207.30**
  • Pivot:  203.25-204.20
  • Support: 201.37-201.85***, 199.60-199.975**

Daily Cattle and Beef Summary 

Cutout values got hit on Thursday afternoon with choice cuts 1.53 lower to 338.37 and select cuts .99 lower to 317.84.   Thursday’s slaughter was reported at 121k head.  The 5-area average price for live steers was reported at 210.00, on light volume. 

The CME feeder Cattle Index is at 291.93 with the NBW Real-Time Index showing 290.46 as of this morning.

Seasonal Tendency Update

(updated 3.31.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for June futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).  

Commitment of Traders Report
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of roughly 3k futures/options contracts, which expands the net long to a new record, 34,132 futures and options contracts.

 

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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