Grains Gain Overnight
Grain markets have shown signs of strength int he overnight and early morning trade, will it hold through today’s trade?
We were on RFD-TV on Monday to share our thoughts on the volatility spike that has swept across a wide variety of markets, including the grain and livestock futures.
Corn
Monday’s Recap
Monday’s Corn market was mostly lower with the July contract gaining 3’4 to 470’6, a one week high. Across all maturities, 488,407 contracts changed hands, with 140,908 traded in the July maturity. Overall open interest decreased by 41,570, or 2.21%, to 1,837,173. July increased by 3,639 (0.63%), finishing at 584,261.
Technicals
Corn avoiding the risk-off panic in the outside markets over the last week has got to be one of the more impressive performances that I can recall. The market has not only been able to hold ground, but firm, with prices chewing through first resistance in the early morning trade. If this strength can hold through the 8:30 open, we could see a push towards our more significant resistance pocket from 472 3/4-473 1/2.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 472 3/4-473 1/2***
Pivot: 462 1/2-465 1/2
Support: 454 1/2-457 3/4***, 440-442 1/2***
Popular Options
Option volumes were highest for the May 480 call (4,582) and the May 440 put (3,208). In July options, the most actively traded call was the 480 strike with 4,003 changing hands, and the 430 put leads with volume of 1,269. Options with the highest open interest are the July 460 call with 60,702, and the July 460 put with 61,941.
Volatility Update
As measured by CVL, implied volatility ended down, losing 0.54 to close the session at 23.66. Gaining 0.33%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) ended the day at 20.68%. The CVL Skew ended the day slightly down, dropping by 0.034 to settle at a one week low of 1.13.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 4.7.25)
Below is a look at historical price averages for July corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of about 16.5k futures and options contracts, shrinking their net long position to 56,757.
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