WTI Crude Holds Ground Amid Volatility: Bias Turns Neutral

Energy Update

/ by Blue Line Futures

WTI Crude Holds Ground Amid Volatility: Bias Turns Neutral

Bias shift to Neutral from Neutral / Bearish

WTI Crude Oil Futures (May) 

Yesterday’s Settlement: 60.70, down -1.29 [-2.08%]

WTI Crude Oil futures ended lower yesterday after an extremely volatile day. Crude was not alone, as the S&P 500 saw historic volatility alongside treasury futures. Traders (us included) were expecting the White House to use last weekend to walk back or soften the tone around tariffs.

This did not happen, and the Sunday night open featured a sharp gap lower across risk assets.   

Risk-off was the tone overnight into the early morning. Then, shortly after the U.S. open, there was a rumor circulated on Twitter that the Trump administration was considering a 90-day delay to reciprocal tariffs. The rumor caught fire and sparked a ferocious risk-on trade. Crude oil, alongside equities, exploded higher. 

The White House responded to the rumor shortly thereafter, declaring it Fake News. Crude oil markets promptly sold back off, but traded above the overnight low for the remainder of the session into today despite an additional 50% tariff announced on China, bringing their tariff rate to 104%.

The fact risk-assets have not made new lows after the additional 50% gives us hope that risk-sentiment is starting to turn. In our opinion, risk is skewed to the upside in the short to medium term. 

Today, futures are higher by +0.50 [+0.82%] to 61.20 

Today’s macro environment is trading risk-on and we’re seeing broad-based dollar weakness.

The macro environment is driving price action in crude oil right now. This will continue to be the case until OPEC+ drops some clues on their mindset moving forward. We’ll be watching closely for any updated rhetoric out of Saudi Arabia.  

Trump is hyping up trade deals and talking positively while risk is catching a bid for the first time this month. Again, we’ve shifted our view and see risk being skewed to the upside. 

Technical Analysis:

Yesterday’s whipsaw volatility across risk-assets will likely have some ripple effects. Margin calls, liquidations and de-risking across the financial space could drive sizeable market flows for the remainder of the week. 

We can not emphasize the importance of risk-management enough in this environment. Position sizing should be pared down while trade selection should tighten up.

We have shifted our Bias to Neutral, from Bearish / Neutral as risk sentiment seems to be turning. Our view could shift if an ugly U.S. open is realized. Our target on the upside is the….

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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