Crude Oil Hits Mid-50s Target Amid Tariff Shock—Now What?

Energy Update

/ by Blue Line Futures

Crude Oil Hits Mid-50s Target Amid Tariff Shock—Now What?

WTI Crude Oil Futures (May)

Yesterday’s Settlement: 59.58, down -1.12 [-1.85%]

WTI Crude Oil futures finished lower yesterday after showing bullish life in the overnight/morning session.

I had shifted my bias to Neutral from Bearish yesterday and was fairly bullish crude in the short term.

The bullish price action overnight came in the face of the clearly bearish 50% additional tariff threat from Trump. This gave me hope that risk sentiment was finally bottoming.

Yesterday’s flip to a more bullish stance was a break from my normal process and a mistake on my part. Last week, I had set my downside target in crude in the mid-50s and we favor profit taking on short positions here today. Always stick to the process.

Today, Crude Oil is down -2.38 [-3.99%] to 57.20

Trump tariffs of 104% have gone into effect and China placed an additional tariff on the U.S. last night. The EU just now put in place a +20% tariff on U.S. goods and metals.

This situation is clearly spiraling, thousands of U.S. businesses will be making plans to pause or entirely shut down operations over the next two weeks. I’ve held the opinion and discussed in this letter that these tariffs will lead to a fairly drastic slowdown in the global economy and lead to a fairly serious recession in the United States.

We need a walkback on these tariffs by the end of the week or this situation will become dire. The real economy will start feeling the shockwaves of this fairly quickly.

Technical Analysis:

Volatility will remain extremely amplified. Positioning based on longer term fundamental outlooks is borderline impossible in this market.

We closed our bearish positioning in crude as our price target has been hit.

For today, we advise staying liquid and in the pocket as volatility could bring extreme opportunities. Risk is extremely amplified, prioritize risk management and sizing while also utilizing risk-defined positioning….

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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