Crude Holds the Line—But Is a Break Below $59 Coming?

Energy Update

/ by Blue Line Futures

Crude Holds the Line—But Is a Break Below $59 Coming?

WTI Crude Oil Futures (May)

 

Yesterday’s Settlement: 60.07, down -2.28 [-3.66%]

WTI Crude Oil futures fell sharply yesterday in a macro-wide risk-off trade.

Failing to hold yesterday’s momentum and turn in risk sentiment. The Dollar is breaking down considerably and credit spreads are still signaling some fear.

Though we got the 90 Day Pause, a recession still seems imminent. CPI figures printed very weak yesterday, adding momentum to the recession fears.

The EIA also slashed 2025 demand forecasts by 400k bpd yesterday, something already priced into the market but a headline mover that could have spurred some retail selling. Also worth noting in the EIA report was the cut to U.S. production estimates in 2026. It seems the EIA is taking note of the production issues in the Permian Basin and the production plans of drillers.

Today, Crude Oil is up +0.19 [+0.32%] to 60.26

PPI printed extremely weak this morning, further boosting recession fears.

The Dollar’s weakness is significant and should help bolster Crude demand. De-dollarization around the world is accelerating, and traders should be aware of its effects.

Gold is breaking out in a big way and with the Dollar losing it’s credibility, commodity market inflows could pickup here at scale. When commodity ETF flows hit the futures market, Crude Oil gets a large portion of it. So, golds strength could help buoy oil prices here to some extent.

 

Technical Analysis:

Yesterday, we advised sitting on hands, but our bias did tilt bullish. We remain bullish in our tilt but are still advising patience for this week to shake out.

Yesterday was a sharp fall but futures did settle above our key pivot point for the day of 59.58. If futures break this level today it should be noted that a shot at the lows of 55.00-55.12*** becomes more probable.

For intraday trading our pivot and point of balance remains at…

 

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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