S&P and Nasdaq Rip Higher—But Resistance Ahead Could Make or Break the Rally
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E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5391.25, up 89.25 on Friday and 281.00 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 18,807.50, up 323.00 on Friday and 1,268.50 on the week
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished Friday on strong footing, rebounding from what appears to be peak panic just a week earlier. The news cycle evolved over the weekend with temporary exemptions for smartphones, laptops, and semiconductor equipment bringing added tailwinds, though it was later clarified by President Trump to be temporary and simply moving to a different tariff bucket.
Today’s economic calendar brings NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations, which has been more anchored when compared to the more volatile and politically infused Michigan read that printed an eyepopping 6.7% Friday; talk about peak panic. We also look to a deluge of Fed speak.
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures have seen a stew of supportive remarks out of the White House after market participants deleveraged, with a supportive technical landscape in the back-half of the week. On Friday, we said:
We find reason to believe this market is ready to rally and yesterday’s retreat, though very large and sloppy, is a typical response and range given the velocity and size of Wednesday’s knee jerk rip higher. Price action did respond to support levels yesterday, most notably the 50% retracement back to the Sunday night low in both the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ, which is now well-defined as a line in the sand at 5146.75-5180.25 and 17,919-17,923, respectively. A break below here would water down our upbeat thesis. We must see constructive price action at our pivot and point of balance, detailed below. All of this could pave the way for a test of rare major four-star resistance in the E-mini S&P at…
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