A Choppy Grain Trade to Start the Week

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

A Choppy Grain Trade to Start the Week

Grain markets were choppy in Monday’s trade, with similar action in the overnight and early morning session. These are the levels to watch for in today’s trade

Crop Progress
Corn: 4% planted, 2% behind expectations and 1% behind the average pace.

Soybeans: 2% planted, 1% behind expectations but in line with the average pace.

Spring Wheat: 7% planted, in line with expectations.

Winter Wheat Ratings: 47% good/excellent, in line with expectations.

 

Wheat


Monday’s Recap
Wheat futures were mostly lower Monday with the July contract finishing the session at 561’6, off by 8’4 (1.49%). Combined volume was a heavy 188,688, with July seeing 75,761 change hands. Overall open interest added 3,136, or 0.67%, to 467,969. July gained 11,414 (5.71%), finishing at 211,163.

Technicals
May wheat futures pulled back to Friday’s “breakout point” and have so far been able to use that as support. Higher lows and higher highs are still intact over the last 2 weeks. The big barrier for the Bulls to get out above comes in from 555-557 1/2. If the Bulls can achieve that we could see a more meaningful relief rally kick into gear.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 555-557 1/2***, 569-570 1/4***, 575 3/4-577 1/2****
Pivot: 530-537
Support: 515-520*


Weekly Export Inspections Snapshot
Monday’s weekly wheat inspections were reported at 604k metric tons, that was above the top end of expectations.

Popular Options
Option volumes were highest for the July 620 call (1,226) and the May 530 put (1,651). Calls with the largest open interest are the July 900 strike (11,433), and for the puts are the July 550 strike (9,106).

Volatility Update
Wheat implied volatility was down as WVL dropped 0.62 to close the session at 30.85. Dropping by 0.48%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) ended the day at 21.51%. The WVL Skew closed moderately up, gaining 0.13 to end the day at 5.48, a one week high.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 4.14.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for July wheat futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

 


Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of roughly 10k futures/options. This puts their net short position at 102,132.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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