Oil Struggles for Direction as Bears Eye Breakdown Below $60

Energy Update

/ by Blue Line Futures

Oil Struggles for Direction as Bears Eye Breakdown Below $60

WTI Crude Oil Futures (May)

Yesterday’s Settlement: 61.53, up +0.03 [+0.05%]

WTI Crude Oil futures finished the day close to unchanged after a fairly volatile trade, with overnight highs hitting 62.66 [+1.16] and intraday lows of 60.59 [-0.91].

The macro environment traded risk-on and the Dollar recorded another day with a sharply lower move. The risk-on tone was driven by the announced tariff reprieve for electronics and chips over the weekend.

OPEC cut demand projections by 100kbpd, which is largely priced into markets. Goldman analysts updated their Crude balance sheets to show +800kbpd of surpluses in 2025, and 1.4mln bpd in 2026.

Fundamental sentiment will weigh on Crude pricing for some time as OPEC output hikes weigh against anemic demand.

Today, Crude Oil is down -0.63 [-1.02%] to 60.90

China banned the purchase and use of Boeing planes last night, further escalating the trade war. This morning, the IEA cut demand projections, and the group’s updated balance sheets show an oversupply of 1.7mln bpd in Q1 2026. The IEA’s 2025 demand growth was cut by 300kbpd to +730k bpd YoY.

The macro environment is trading risk off this morning with equities and treasuries lower, while precious metals are higher. The Dollar, sitting near three-year lows (DXY), is trading on either side of unchanged. The dollar / Treasury correlation has been a signal that investor confidence in the US is fading as instability and unpredictability have become the norm.

The Financial Times reported yesterday that large Canadian and Dutch pension funds are halting investments in the US while Japanese investors (largest holder of treasuries) withdrew near record funds last week. A longer term trend of Dollar weakness may be developing.

With the fundamental backdrop in Crude Oil, when news is lacking, prices will pull to the downside.

Technical Analysis:

We’re eying a run back up to last week’s highs of 63.34**. A settlement above here would set us up for considerable chart repair if we get a settlement above 64.10****.

Failure to retest last week’s high of 63.34 keeps momentum squarely in favor of the bears, making a run back to the mid-50s probable.

Prices are likely consolidating between the lows made last Tuesday of 57.88** and the highs made Thursday of 63.34**.

Volatility will likely remain amplified this week, making longer-term fundamental positioning extremely difficult. This is a headline market and should be traded as such. Traders should prioritize risk management and position sizing.

For intraday trading our pivot and point of balance is set at….

 

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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