Grains Mixed into the Last Trading Day of the Week

Weekly Export Sales Estimates

Scheduled to be released at 7:30am CT

Soybeans

Wednesday’s Recap
July Soybean futures settled at 1050’2 Wednesday, higher by 3’6, in higher trade across the board. Overall, 309,432 contracts were traded, with 113,328 done in July. Combined open interest decreased 5,359, or 0.66%, with July adding 8,611 (2.78%) to 318,888.

Technicals
May soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged yesterday, finishing the day near unchanged, which happens to be right in our pivot pocket. Technical levels are unchanged from yesterday’s report. Keep in mind that today is the last trading day of the week.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1063 1/2-1066 3/4***
Pivot: 1036 1/2-1042
Support: 1028-1031 1/2***, 1008-1013**

Drier weather good news for behind-schedule Argentina soybean harvest

April 16 (Reuters) – The mostly dry conditions expected in coming days will give a needed boost to Argentina’s soybean crop, as recent rains have put the harvest behind schedule, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Wednesday.

Argentina, the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal, has been drenched with heavy rains through March and early April, muddying fields and leaving farmers unable to bring in the crop.

A storm front is expected to pass through the nation’s agricultural heartland, but low humidity means that it will produce little to no rainfall, the exchange said.

Roads and fields have already started to dry out after several sunny days, with more on the way.

By Wednesday, farmers had reaped nearly 5% of soybean fields, putting them 2.6 percentage points behind the five-year average.

The crop has shown better-than-expected yields so far, the exchange added, at 3.9 metric tons per hectare. The exchange pegs the soy harvest at 48.6 million tons.

Progress is also underway on the corn harvest, which is 28% complete.

Yields are surprising to the upside and the corn harvest “could exceed initial expectations,” according to the exchange, which estimates production at 49 million tons this season.

Popular Options
Option trading centered around the May 1060 calls with 4,027 traded and the Nov 940 puts with volume of 6,978. Option open interest is greatest for the Nov 1200 calls at 17,553, and the Nov 900 puts at 25,691.

Volatility Update
Soybean implied volatility finished the session moderately lower as SVL decreased 0.16 to close at 16.72, a one week low. The 30-day historical volatility finished the session down by 0.51% to a one week low of 18.07%. The SVL Skew was moderately lower with the 30-day dropping 0.16, finishing at 0.40.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 4.14.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for July soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).