Grain Markets Gain to Start the Week

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

Grain Markets Gain to Start the Week

Grain markets are firm to start a new week of trade, with several contracts knocking on the door of a potential breakout move. These are the levels to keep an eye on for corn, soybeans, and wheat.

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May grain options expire at the end of the week, which has started to move the bulk of futures trade volume out to July. If you’re in May futures, you’ll want to consider exiting or rolling before the end of the week.

Corn


Thursday’s Recap
Corn futures were lower Thursday with the July contract finishing the session at 490’2, off by 1’4, in a quiet session. Across all maturities, 336,554 contracts were traded, with 115,218 done in the July maturity. Combined open interest added 8,749, or 0.51%, with July adding 9,555 (1.47%) to 660,700.

Technicals
July corn futures are higher to start the week but are below the highs from the end of last week. Those highs will act as first resistance this week, coming in from 495-497 1/2. Last week’s trade looks like it has the potential to be a “Bull Flag”, a breakout and close above first resistance would confirm that setup and open the door for a move back above $5 with a retest of the year’s high not out of the question. On the flipside, a break and close below support from 483 3/4-488 1/2 would neutralize that setup and could lead to a further retracement from the impressive rally from the start of the month. Our trade desk remains pretty upbeat on old crop corn.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 495-497 1/2***, 504 1/2**, 510-512***
Pivot: 483 3/4-488 1/2
Support: 474 3/4-477***, 454 1/2-457 3/4***


Popular Options
Option volumes were greatest for the July 510 call (4,062) and the May 480 put (4,206). Options with the largest open interest are the July 500 call with 39,726, and the Dec 400 put with 23,564.

Volatility Update
As measured by CVL, implied volatility closed the session down, dropping 0.39 to settle at a one week low of 20.75. Historical volatility (30-day) closed the session at 16.90%, losing 0.20%, to a one month low. The CVL Skew finished the session sharply down, off by 0.34 to settle at a one week low of 0.44.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 4.21.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for July corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).


Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 71k futures and options contracts through April 15th, expanding their net long position to 124,573.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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