Grain Markets Mixed Following Monday's Crop Progress Report
Grain markets have been trading mixed in the overnight and early morning trade, these are the levels to watch for today’s trade.
May grain options expire at the end of the week, which has started to move the bulk of futures trade volume out to July. If you’re in May futures, you’ll want to consider exiting or rolling before the end of the week.
Weekly Crop Progress Snapshot |
Corn
Monday’s Recap
July Corn futures settled at 490’0 Monday, lower by 0’2, in lower trade across the board. Overall, 348,167 contracts changed hands, with 132,427 traded in July. Total open interest lost 5,829, or 0.34%, to 1,709,330. July rose 5,298 (0.80%), finishing at 666,055.
Technicals
Consolidation continues to be the name of the game for July corn futures, keeping technical levels little changed from yesterday’s morning note. First resistance remains intact from 495-497 1/2. Last week’s trade looks like it has the potential to be a “Bull Flag”, a breakout and close above first resistance would confirm that setup and open the door for a move back above $5 with a retest of the year’s high not out of the question. On the flipside, a break and close below support from 483 3/4-488 1/2 would neutralize that setup and could lead to a further retracement from the impressive rally from the start of the month. Our trade desk remains pretty upbeat on old crop corn.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 495-497 1/2***, 504 1/2**, 510-512***
Pivot: 483 3/4-488 1/2
Support: 474 3/4-477***, 454 1/2-457 3/4***
Popular Options
Option volumes were greatest for the May OCD 465 call (5,682) and the May 480 put (7,617). Calls with the greatest open interest are the July 500 strike (39,826), and for the puts are the Dec 400 strike (23,485).
Volatility Update
Implied Volatility settled sharply up with CVL gaining 1.2, to end at a one week high of 21.95. Historical volatility (30-day) closed the session at 17.35%, adding 0.46%. The CVL Skew finished sharply up, higher by 0.81 to close the session at a one week high of 1.25.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 4.21.25)
Below is a look at historical price averages for July corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 71k futures and options contracts through April 15th, expanding their net long position to 124,573.
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