Crude hits rare resistance—Kazakhstan rattles OPEC+ expectations.

Energy Update

/ by Blue Line Futures

Crude hits rare resistance—Kazakhstan rattles OPEC+ expectations.

** Bias shift to Neutral from Neutral / Bullish

WTI Crude Oil Futures (June Future)

 

Yesterday’s Settlement: 63.67, up +1.26 [+2.01%]   

 

WTI Crude Oil futures rallied yesterday after Scott Bessent’s positive comments regarding trade relations with China and President Trump’s more hawkish Iran comments.

 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was quoted as saying that China and the U.S. are looking to de-escalate trade tensions as the current tariff levels are “unsustainable”. Crude Oil and equity markets jumped on the news while the Dollar rallied in a risk-on trade. Tariff-related headlines continued throughout the day, driving market volatility. The headline also helped to drive Gold lower after making a sharply higher overnight high of 3,500.

 

President Trump stated that the U.S. and Israel are aligned on “every issue” after a call with Prime Minister Netanyahu. Markets took the comments as being hawkish on Iran and helped spark a rally in Crude oil. While negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program have seemed to be going better than expected, this news could signal otherwise.

 

Today, Crude Oil is down -0.58 [-0.91%] to 63.09 

 

This morning, Kazakhstan officials said they will prioritize national interests over OPEC. This is driving crude lower as a chunk of the compensation cuts will not be fully hit and the risks of Saudi retaliation now comes into play. 

 

If the Saudis were to overreact and increase production, the pricing risk is much lower. We have not heard a response from OPEC yet. Once we get an idea of how Saudi Arabia will react, we can recalibrate our trading bias.        

  

Technical Analysis:

 

WTI Crude Oil futures traded into rare four-star resistance last night. Our target price on the opportunistic long was around 65, with 70 being the upside, which was hit last night. The Kazakhstan news shifts risk to the downside. 

 

Until we get news out of Saudi Arabia, we don’t know how they will react. Once we get some inkling of how the Saudis will react to the Kazakhstan news, we can recalibrate the bull thesis. For today, we hold a neutral stance.

 

For intraday trading our pivot and point of balance is set at…..

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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