A Choppy Grain Trade

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

A Choppy Grain Trade

Grain markets have been choppy over the last several sessions as money flow and technicals push and pull price action. These are the levels to keep an eye on for today’s trade.

Corn


Wednesday’s Recap
July Corn futures settled at 475’4 Wednesday, up by 5’2, or 1.12%. Across all maturities, 393,684 contracts changed hands, with 196,430 traded in the July maturity. Combined open interest decreased by 11,318 (0.73%) to 1,532,616. July lost 12,153, or 1.79%, finishing at 665,611.

Technicals
July corn futures were able to stabilize and recover some lost ground in Wednesday’s trade, which has spilled over to additional firmness in the Thursday morning session. The market is right back in our pivot pocket, 474 3/4-477. The Bulls will want to see consecutive closes back above this pocket repair the technical damage that was done in Tuesday’s trade. A failure to do so keeps downside risk present, with little significant support until you get near the low end of the range from March, 450 1/2-455 1/4.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 481 1/2-483 3/4***, 495-497 1/2***
Pivot: 474 3/4-477
Support: 463 1/4-465 1/4***, 450 1/2-455 1/4***


Popular Options
Option trading centered around the Dec 550 calls with 4,227 traded and the July OCD 435 puts with volume of 3,282. Largest volumes in July option trading were seen in the 490 calls (3,122) and the 435 puts (1,649). Calls with the greatest open interest are the July 500 strike (38,944), and for the puts are the Dec 400 strike (24,599).

Volatility Update

Corn implied volatility finished moderately higher as CVL rose by 0.69 to close the day at 24.61, a one month high. Adding 0.16% to a one week high, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) closed the session at 18.45%. The CVL Skew was sharply higher, up 0.81 to close the session at 1.98, a one week high.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 4.28.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for July corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of about 12k futures and options contracts through April 22nd, shrinking their net long position to 112,805.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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