Grain Markets Start the Week with a Softer Tone

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

Grain Markets Start the Week with a Softer Tone

Corn futures broke lower last week causing some technical damage on the chart, while soybeans were able to hold their ground. Potential short covering relief in wheat? These are a few things on our radar to start this week’s trade.

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Corn


Friday’s Recap
Friday’s Corn market was mostly higher with the July contract off by 3’2 to 469’0, a one week low. Overall the session saw 338,581 contracts done, with July volume coming in at 163,656. Total open interest dropped 3,516 (0.23%) to 1,535,206. July shed 1,018, or 0.15%, finishing at 665,745.

Technicals
Last week’s technical breakdown below several major moving averages left a mark on the chart with the Bears taking advantage of it at the end of last week and to start this week’s trade. The market is softer in the early morning trade with prices pulling back towards our support pocket from 463 1/4-465 1/4. A failure here and we could see the selling accelerate with the next downside targets coming in from 450 1/2-455 1/4. The Bulls will want to see consecutive closes back above resistance to neutralize the Bearish technical developments that took place last week.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 481 1/2-483 3/4***, 495-497 1/2***
Pivot: 474 3/4-477
Support: 463 1/4-465 1/4***, 450 1/2-455 1/4***


Popular Options
Option trading centered around the July 520 calls with 6,323 changing hands and the June OCD 440 puts with volume of 3,200. Calls with the highest open interest are the July 500 strike (38,530), and for the puts are the Dec 400 strike (24,619).

Volatility Update

Implied Volatility closed the day sharply down with CVL dropping 1.2, to finish the session at 23.01. The 30-day historical volatility finished the day dropping by 0.14% to 17.93%. The CVL Skew settled moderately higher, gaining 0.13 to close the day at 1.95.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 5.5.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for July corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of about 41.5k futures and options contracts through April 29th, shrinking their net long position to 71,329..

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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