Grains Gain Ground Overnight

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

Grains Gain Ground Overnight

Grain markets were weaker to start the week but have found their footing in the overnight and early morning trade, will it hold?

Corn


Monday’s Recap
July Corn futures finished the day at a one month low of 454’2 Monday, off 14’6 (3.14%). Overall, 534,210 contracts were traded, with 270,570 done in July. Across all maturities, open interest gained 12,287, or 0.80%, to end the session with 1,547,682 outstanding. The July maturity rose 1.57% (12,287) to finish at 676,264.

Technicals
In yesterday’s morning commentary we discussed how last week’s technical breakdown gave the bears the upper hand on the chart, siting the potential for accelerated selling if 463 1/4-465 1/4 gave way, writing: “A failure here and we could see the selling accelerate with the next downside targets coming in from 450 1/2-455 1/4.”. This is what we saw in yesterday’s trade with 450 1/2-455 1/4 so far holding. From a risk/reward perspective, we see this as a decent spot to look to the long side. A failure to defend that support pocket on a closing basis would neutralize that bias. 463 1/4-465 1/4 will now act as first resistance.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 474 3/4-477**, 481 1/2-483 3/4***
Pivot: 463 1/4-465 1/4
Support: 450 1/2-455 1/4***. 445 3/4**, 436 3/4-437****


Popular Options
The July 450 put saw the most action with 5,360 contracts done. Option open interest is highest for the July 500 calls at 35,421, and the Dec 400 puts at 24,163.

Volatility Update

As measured by CVL, implied volatility closed sharply up, adding 2.1 to finish the session at a one month high of 25.11. Higher by 2.37% to a one week high, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) closed the session at 20.30%. The CVL Skew ended the session up, adding 0.3 to close at 2.25, a one month high.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 5.5.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for July corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of about 41.5k futures and options contracts through April 29th, shrinking their net long position to 71,329..

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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