Markets Hold the Range as Fed Decision Looms

E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5625.75, down 46.00

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 19,876.50, down 179.00

The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day policy meeting at 1:00 pm CT with its closely analyzed statement. The bank is not expected to move on rates, and this is not a quarterly meeting; there will be no Statement of Economic Projections. However, there is a 28.6% probability that the committee cuts 25bps in June. Fed Chair Powell holds his press conference at 1:30 pm CT. We will likely hear more about the Fed’s balance sheet and whether any recent SOMA activity is meaningful.

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished yesterday probing slightly below that first layer of support we highlighted here. However, upon the reopen, there was immediate strength on news that Treasury Secretary Bessent will meet with a top Chinese trade official in Switzerland later this week. Although the immediate highs were above yesterday’s session, price action has remained rangebound. In fact, our first resistance for both the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ were major three-star marks yesterday and held the range perfectly during the session. Due to a brief overnight violation, we have revised them to key resistance. Furthermore, first supports are now major three-star supports and align with settlement for each the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ. Our Pivot and point of balance will be critical through the first hour in helping to determine whether the sellers have regained yesterday’s edge or if a floor is building, with those levels coming in at